What-if analysis is a scenario modeling technique where you make a hypothetical change to a time series and compare the forecasts generated by these changes against the baseline, unchanged time series. It is important to remember that the purpose of a what-if analysis is to understand how a forecast can change given different modifications to the baseline time series.
For example, imagine you are a clothing retailer who is considering an end of season sale to clear space for new styles. After creating a baseline forecast, you can use a what-if analysis to investigate how different sales tactics might affect your goals.
You could create a scenario where everything is given a 25% markdown, and another where everything is given a fixed dollar markdown. You could create a scenario where the sale lasts for one week and another where the sale lasts for one month. With a what-if analysis, you can compare many different scenarios against each other.
Note that a what-if analysis is meant to display what the forecasting model has learned and how it will behave in the scenarios that you are evaluating. Do not blindly use the results of the what-if analysis to make business decisions. For instance, forecasts might not be accurate for novel scenarios where there is no reference available to determine whether a forecast is good.
The
TimeSeriesSelector object defines the items that you want in the what-if analysis.